This year’s extended holiday forecast exceeds pre-pandemic numbers, sets new record
OKLAHOMA CITY – Nov. 18, 2024 – AAA projects 79.9 million travelers nationwide will head 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period*. For the first time, AAA’s forecast includes the Tuesday before and the Monday after Thanksgiving Day to better capture the flow of holiday travelers.
This year’s projection of nearly 80 million travelers is an increase of 1.7 million people compared to last year and 2 million more than in 2019.
“Thanksgiving is the busiest holiday for travel, and this year we’re expecting to set new records across the board, from driving to flying and cruising,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. “Americans reconnect with family and friends over Thanksgiving, and travel is a big part of that. AAA continues to see travel demand soar post-pandemic with our members looking for new adventures and memorable vacations.”
Thanksgiving Travelers By Mode
By Car: AAA projects a record 71.7 million people will travel by car over Thanksgiving – that’s an additional 1.3 million travelers on the road compared to last year. This year’s number also surpasses pre-pandemic numbers when 70.6 million people drove to their Thanksgiving destinations in 2019.
Gas prices are lower this Thanksgiving season compared to 2023. The national average last Thanksgiving Day was $3.26. Falling oil prices this autumn may help push the national average below $3 a gallon for the first time since
2021, and that could happen before drivers hit the road for Thanksgiving. Regionally, drivers east of the Rockies will find gas between $2.25 to $2.50 a gallon in more than a dozen states.
AAA car rental partner Hertz says Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oahu, Orlando, and Phoenix are the cities displaying the highest rental demand for the Thanksgiving holiday. The busiest car pick-up day is expected to be the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and the busiest rental return days will be the Monday and Tuesday after the holiday.
By Air: Thanksgiving air travel is also expected to set a new record. AAA projects 5.84 million people will fly domestically this holiday. That’s an increase of 2% compared to last year and a nearly 11% increase over 2019. According to AAA booking data, air travelers are paying 3% more for domestic Thanksgiving flights this year, while the number of flight bookings is similar to last year. International flight bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5%.
By Other Modes: Nearly 2.3 million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains. This category is seeing an increase of almost 9% compared to last year and an 18% jump over 2019, in large part due to the popularity of cruising. The demand for cruises has been red-hot post-pandemic. Domestic and international cruise bookings are up 20% compared to last Thanksgiving.
Best/Worst Times to Drive
INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says the worst times to travel by car over Thanksgiving are Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. The best time to hit the road is Thanksgiving Day itself when interstates and highways are typically clear. Drivers returning home on Sunday should leave early in the morning, and those coming back on Monday should expect a mix of travelers and work commuters on the road.
“With a record number of travelers expected to be on the road, drivers should follow traffic apps and local news alerts to avoid major delays,” said Bob Pishue, transportation analyst at INRIX. “This is especially important for drivers in metropolitan areas like Boston, New York, LA, Seattle, and Washington, DC, where traffic is expected to be more than double what it typically is on a normal day.”
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Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car |
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Date |
Worst Travel Time |
Best Travel Time |
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Mon., Nov. 25 |
1 PM – 5 PM |
Before 11 AM |
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Tue., Nov. 26 |
1 PM – 7 PM |
Before 10 AM |
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Wed., Nov. 27 |
1 PM – 5PM |
Before 10 AM |
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Thu., Nov. 28 Thanksgiving Day |
Minimal Traffic Impact Expected |
|
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Fri., Nov. 29 |
7 AM – 10 AM |
After 1 PM |
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Sat., Nov. 30 |
4 PM – 8 PM |
Before 1 PM |
|
Sun., Dec. 1 |
12 PM – 6 PM |
Before 1 PM |
|
Mon., Dec. 2 |
9 AM – 6 PM |
Before 8 AM / After 7 PM |
SOURCE: INRIX
AAA’s Top Thanksgiving Destinations
The common theme among the top 10 domestic destinations is warm weather! Four Florida cities are on the list because of their beaches, theme parks, and cruise ports. Other top destinations include New York, California, Hawaii, and Las Vegas. Internationally, Europe and the Caribbean dominate the list thanks to their beach resorts, tourist attractions, and river cruises. The top Thanksgiving destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2.
Holiday Forecast Methodology
Travel Forecast
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.
Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of October 7, 2024.
Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.
*Thanksgiving Holiday Travel Period
For this forecast, the Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the seven-day period from Tuesday, November 26 to Monday, December 2. This is the first year the Thanksgiving forecast is a longer timeframe to include the Tuesday before the holiday and the Monday after. Historically, AAA only looked at Wednesday through Sunday.
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