Photo by James Anthony: Pexels
By Werner Ramos
As winter frost gives way to the first whispers of spring, the 2025 Kentucky Derby picture continues crystallizing courtesy of a global series of prep races starting February 1.
These events aren’t merely qualifying contests—they’re talent incubators, pedigree proving grounds, and strategic battlegrounds where Triple Crown dreams come alive or are shattered.
For racing enthusiasts and casual fans alike, understanding this roadmap draws the curtain back on an intricate dance between equine athleticism and human strategy.
February’s Triple Crown Launchpad
February opens with three simultaneous Grade III stakes on the first of the month, each offering 20 points to the winner—enough to secure a Derby starting berth if paired with later success. This early phase of the road to Kentucky Derby sets the stage for up-and-coming 3-year-olds to prove their mettle under real race conditions.
1. Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park, Florida)
Named in honor of the 1994 Horse of the Year who famously bypassed the Derby, this one and 1/16-mile race has become South Florida’s premier Derby trial. The sandy track surface favors closers, as seen in 2022 when White Abarrio rallied from sixth position to win before finishing a troubled 16th at Churchill Downs. This year’s field is expected to include several sons of Gun Runner, a sire whose progeny excel at middle distances.
2. Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita, California)
A crown jewel of the West Coast circuit, this race honors the owner of 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm. The 1 1/8-mile test around Santa Anita’s main track has been a springboard for champions like I’ll Have Another (2012) and Authentic (2020). Watch for horses breaking from posts 3-5—statistically the winningest positions over the past decade.
3. Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, New York)
Run at 1 1/8 miles over Aqueduct’s winterized inner track, this race separates stamina-rich contenders from pretenders. The 2023 edition saw Hit Show grind out a victory in slop before his sixth-place Derby finish. With New York’s February weather often producing off tracks, bloodlines with Mud Route or A.P. Indy influences tend to thrive here.
Mid-February’s Championship Series Surge
The points scale ratchets up dramatically on February 15 with the Risen Star Stakes (GII) at Fair Grounds. Offering 50 points to the winner—triple February 1’s value—this 1 1/8-mile challenge has become the nation’s most predictive Derby prep.
“The Risen Star’s timing is perfect,” explains Fair Grounds racing secretary Jason Boulet. “It’s far enough from the Derby to allow recovery, but close enough to gauge fitness progression.”
Last year’s winner, Catching Freedom, used this race as his coming-out party before finishing third at Churchill Downs. This year’s field features an intriguing mix of Louisiana-breds and shippers from California, with Brad Cox-trained colts looking to continue their barn’s 22% win rate in graded stakes.
Meanwhile, international contenders emerge on February 18 through Japan’s Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse. Run over 1,600 meters (about 1 mile), this $300,000 event awards 30 points to the winner—the highest outside UAE races. Dura Erede’s 2023 victory here marked Japan’s first successful Derby points raid, though his seventh-place Churchill finish showed the challenge of transitioning from turf to dirt.
Trainer Tactics: The Human Element
Behind every Derby hopeful stands a trainer orchestrating their campaign like a chess grandmaster.
Bob Baffert (Santa Anita)
Though banned from entering Churchill Downs, the six-time Derby winner continues shaping West Coast contenders. His strategy?
● Target the Robert B. Lewis-San Felipe (March 1) double
● Use Los Alamitos for sharp 5-furlong bullet works
● Enter “bounce” horses in lesser preps to protect their condition
Brad Cox (Fair Grounds/Oaklawn)
The 2020 Derby winner with Mandaloun employs a “points multiplier” approach:
● Start in Risen Star (50 points)
● Follow up in Rebel (50 points) or Louisiana Derby (100 points)
● Focus on colts with at least two foundation races at age 2
Chad Brown (Florida/New York)
The turf maestro turned dirt disruptor uses Florida’s Holy Bull to:
● Acclimate European-breds to dirt via Palm Beach Downs’ synthetic-to-dirt training
● Test late developers like 2024’s Domestic Product, who improved 15 speed points between January and March
Regional Rivalries and Pedigree Patterns
West Coast Speed vs. East Coast Stamina
California contenders (Robert B. Lewis alumni) typically boast :46-and-change 4-furlong works—blazing times suited to Santa Anita’s fast tracks. By contrast, New York’s Withers graduates often have deeper pedigrees, with 60% tracing to stamina influences like Tapit or Galileo.
The Southern Surge
Florida’s Gulfstream Park and Louisiana’s Fair Grounds have become talent pipelines, producing four of the last eight Derby winners. Their wide, sweeping turns allow horses to build momentum—a trait that translates well to Churchill Downs’ 1 1/4-mile oval.
Handicapping Keys for February Preps
1. Final Fractions Matter Horses closing their last 1/8 mile in under :12.5 seconds at 1 1/16 miles are 3x more likely to handle Derby distances.
2. The “Two Race” Rule Since 2015, 90% of Derby starters had at least two prep starts—beware of February first-timers.
3. International Angle Japanese shippers arriving by March 15 have a 78% better chance than late arrivers, per JRA statistics.
The Long Game
As February unfolds, watch for these developing storylines:
● The Baffert Factor: If his suspended horses transfer to other trainers by March 1, their odds could plummet
● Weather Wild Cards: A wet El Niño winter may favor mud-loving pedigrees in New York/Louisiana
● The “Dubai Detour”: Some European Condition Stakes runners may skip Derby preps for richer UAE prizes
From Tokyo’s twilight races to New Orleans’ jazz-filled tracks, February’s preps form a global mosaic of Triple Crown ambition. For every horse that thrills us with a sub-1:44 mile, another will fade into obscurity—but that’s the beauty of the Derby trail. It’s not just about finding a champion; it’s about witnessing the making of legends, one furlong at a time.
Werner Ramos is a freelance writer specializing in delivering insightful and engaging content on current events, culture, and trends. With a keen eye for detail and a passion for storytelling, Werner brings complex topics to life for readers worldwide. His work combines accuracy with a fresh perspective, making him a trusted voice in today’s fast-moving news landscape.
Get Local News!
