Fire Situation Report – November 6, 2023

Monday, 06 November 2023 10:03

Fire Situation Report – November 6, 2023 Featured

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Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food & Forestry

OFS STATISTICS for October 19 November 5, 2023                                   OFS Preparedness Level: 1 2 3 4 5

NE Area      Fires Burned 10.5 Acres (Cause: 1-Escapsed Debris. 1-Incendiary)

EC Area      No New Activity

SE Area      9 Fires Burned 50.4 Acres (Cause: 2-Escaped Debris, 1-Equipment, 6-Incendiary) Large / Significant Fire Activity within the OFS Protection Area: No New Activity

Fire Activity with OFS Response outside of the Protection Area:      No New Activity OFS Prescribed Fire Activity:   No New Activity

Fire Department Activity:    Light Initial Attack

Statewide Discussion: A familiar pattern this week with above normal temperatures and breezy conditions preceding a cold front will present elevated fire danger over parts of Oklahoma this week. The highest fire danger indices will develop on Tuesday and Wednesday over the Panhandle and western counties with Tuesday presenting the strongest alignment in the fire environment. With the killing freeze that affected most of Oklahoma last week and subsequent curing days, most warm-season herbaceous species have transitioned to dormancy increasing available fuels. Most of the Panhandle and pockets in northwestern Oklahoma are exceeding one-month separation from wetting rains while the bulk of the state is now one-week separated. Those recent rains coupled with cooler temperatures and good overnight moisture recovery has resulted in a relaxation of Energy Release Component excluding those areas in the Panhandle and parts of northwestern Oklahoma where values remain around the 70th percentile, or a range where some resistance to control is expected. While it will be warm, dry and breezy Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, initial attack efforts are expected to remain successful with moderate potential for large fire occurrence and very limited significant fire potential. As a stronger cold front moves into Oklahoma on Thursday, fire danger will again subside noting that wetting precipitation chances are currently reserved for southeastern Oklahoma.

Today: Above-normal temperatures are expected statewide today. Dewpoint temperatures will be lowest in the Panhandle and far western counties where afternoon relative humidity values will dip below 25% briefly this afternoon. Elsewhere, relative humidity values will struggle to drop below 35% limiting fine-dead fuel moisture from tapping concerning values.

  • Oklahoma Panhandle/Northwestern Oklahoma: A weak trough entering into the area this morning will result in north component winds during the morning that will become a bit more variable in direction this afternoon remaining rather light sustained around 10 mph with limited Temperature will range from the upper-70°’s to around 80° under mostly- clear skies with afternoon relative humidity values 13-26% yielding fine-dead fuel moisture tapping 4% during peak burning conditions. Rangeland fuels will support head fire rates of spread 75-95 ft/min with flame lengths +/-9 ft.
  • Western Oklahoma: The highest fire danger indices will develop in southwestern Oklahoma and along the 100th-meridian (OK/TX border) where afternoon temperature will reach 81°-88° under clear skies with realti9ve humidity values 13-24% during peak burning West-southwest winds sustained around 10 mph coupled with some higher gusts will drive rates of spread in rangeland fuels 65-90 ft/min with flame lengths +/-8 ft.

Tuesday:  Well above-normal temperatures coupled with dry and breezy conditions in the pre-frontal environment will drive high to very-high fire danger indices during the afternoon hours. Conditions are expected to moderate following sunset although a bit of an extended burning period is expected. The highest fire danger indices will develop generally along and west of US 183 where temperature will top out in the mid- to upper-80°’s under clear skies with relative humidity values 7% (Cimarron County) to 23% along US 183 resulting in fine-dead fuel moisture values 3-4%. In this area, south to southwest winds sustained 12-17 mph with gusts around 25 mph will support moderate to rapid rates of fire spread in dormant rangeland fuels. Head fire rates of spread at 123-159 ft/min with flame lengths 10-12 ft should be anticipated on established wildfires. Initial attack efforts are expected to be successful although some large fire potential exists.

Wednesday: Current forecast data reveals a bit more relaxed conditions than Tuesday although the significant drying that occurs on Tuesday coupled with marginal overnight moisture recovery across western Oklahoma will result in earlier development of the burning period. Again, the highest fire danger indices will develop west of US 183. Temperature will range from the upper-60°’s in the western Panhandle to 85° in southwest Oklahoma. With afternoon relative humidity values generally in the 20%’s, fuels will again be receptive. Southerly winds will begin to shift to the northwest through the burning period sustained 15-21 with some higher gusts. Rangeland fuels will support head fire rates of spread 115-160 ft/min with flame lengths around 11 ft.

Near-Term:  As the cold front moves across Oklahoma Wednesday into Thursday, moderated fire danger is expected in the western half of the state while some rain chances build in eastern Oklahoma. The best opportunity for wetting rains will reside in southeastern Oklahoma. A quick glance into the near-term, 6-10 Day Temp/Precip Outlook, points to above normal temperatures and overall normal precipitation. No significant is expected in the near-term period.

Burn Bans: (None currently in effect) Refer to: https://ag.ok.gov/divisions/forestry-services/ for the most current burn ban information and links to specific burn ban proclamations.

Last modified on Monday, 06 November 2023 11:38
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