August Economic Outlook Shows Continued Growth Across Oklahoma Economy

“August’s numbers show Oklahoma’s economy continuing to move in a positive direction,” said Treasurer Russ. “Annual revenue has reached $18 billion, with growth across several major tax sources. We’re also seeing some moderation in inflation, even as the labor market continues to cool.” 

August revenue was higher than the same month last year across several major tax sources. Gross Production Tax revenue increased $14.2 million, or 16.5%, while Sales and Use Tax revenue increased $36.1 million, or 6.1%. Income Tax revenue rose $6 million, or 1.6%, and Other Tax Sources increased $1.3 million, or 0.9%. Motor Vehicle Tax revenue declined $10.4 million, or 14.5%. 

The report highlights several key indicators shaping Oklahoma’s economic outlook: 

• Energy activity remained strong, with sustained oil prices and increased drilling activity supporting producer revenues and the outlook for Gross Production Tax revenue. The longer-term trend continues to show stronger performance than the previous year. 

• Manufacturing growth accelerated in August, with the Business Conditions Index climbing well above growth neutral. Stronger orders, production, inventories and employment point to broad-based expansion, while improving employment conditions suggest manufacturers are beginning to rebuild their workforce. 

• The Oklahoma Stock Index gained momentum, posting a stronger increase after several months of weakness. National markets also strengthened, with the Dow reaching new highs amid solid corporate earnings and continued investor confidence. 

• Inflationary pressures increased in August, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.4% following a 0.1% increase in July. The latest increase indicates inflation has not yet settled into a consistently moderating trend. 

• PCE inflation remained at 3.7% in July, matching June’s rate and continuing the moderation from the 4.4% annual increase recorded in May. The steady reading suggests the pace of annual price growth has leveled off after rising earlier in the year. 

• Mortgage rates held relatively steady, fluctuating only slightly during August after rising through July. Borrowing costs remain elevated compared with earlier 2026 lows, continuing to weigh on housing affordability and buyer confidence. 

The state’s energy sector continued to provide a positive contribution to economic activity as summer ended. The average WTI crude oil price reached $83.90 in August, while the average rig count increased to 51. Gasoline prices eased modestly, with the national average declining to $4.192 per gallon, although fuel costs remain elevated compared with the beginning of the year. 

Oklahoma’s labor market continues to show resilience, although the report identifies gradual cooling in employment conditions. The latest figures show Oklahoma’s unemployment rate at 4.3%, compared with 4.1% nationally. 

Overall, the August Economic Outlook points to an Oklahoma economy maintaining positive momentum, supported by broad revenue growth, strong energy activity and an accelerating manufacturing sector. Inflation and labor-market conditions remain important factors to monitor as the state moves into the fall.